Safety 2013 Proceedings

537 "What are the Odds" - The Probability of an Accident (I)

Instructor: Victor J. Sordillo, P.E., CSP, Chubb Corporation, Whitehouse Station, NJ

Description: This session is designed to present an assessment of the probability of an event occurring that causes loss. It will examine our tolerance for risk and possible outcomes. For example, on a Saturday afternoon at a soccer game, clouds move in with the sounds of thunder, but no lightning is visible. One coach calls the game but the other wants to keep playing. What risks are the coaches taking? When, if at all, should the coach call off the game? How does this carry over to work? When is risk tolerance too low or too high? Should we ever gamble?

Level: I